Thursday DOW +239.66 CRB +8.31 USD -0.368 Gold +12.59 S&P +29.38 NAS +54.46
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E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y
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The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1136.02 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1183.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
1096.47 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1159.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1183.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1036.17 Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1096.50.
The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 740.10 on Thursday.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 740.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 703.76 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 742.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 775.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 703.76. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 663.30.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7143. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering is possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7143 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6822 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If the Dow renews this year's decline, the April 1997 low crossing at 6315 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7143. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 7054. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6822. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 6469.
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June T-bonds closed up 31/32's at 126-25.
June T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past six weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 129-02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews this year's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 122-02 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 128-00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 129-02. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 124-00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 123-04.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
April crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday ending a two-day correction off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.46 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If April extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 50.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 48.83. Second resistance is the reaction's high crossing at 50.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 39.44.
April heating oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.05. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 107.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 130.32 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted and would open the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of March. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 126.99. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130.32. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 112.52. Second support is monthly support crossing at 107.35.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.28. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 141.52 are needed to confirm an upside breakout and would open the door for a larger-degree rally into spring. If April extends this week's decline, trendline support crossing near 117.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 139.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 140.61. First support is today's low crossing at 124.04. Second support is trendline support crossing near 117.00.
April Henry natural closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.380 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.048. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.122. First support is today's low crossing at 3.759. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.390.
CURRENCIES
The June Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.66. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at
86.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.19 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.19. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 90.30. First support is today's low crossing at 87.86. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 86.75.
The June Euro closed higher on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.988. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 129.830 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews this year's decline, October's low crossing at 123.640 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 128.820. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 129.830. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 124.560. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.640.
The June British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews this week's decline, January's low crossing at 1.3618 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4167 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4010. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4167. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3662. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3618.
The June Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Thursday and spiked below February's low crossing at .8436. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, October's low crossing at .8239 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .8720 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .8776. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .8801. First support is today's low crossing at .8377. Second support is October's low crossing at .8239.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates above December's low crossing at 77.20. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If June extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 74.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 78.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.66. Second support is weekly support crossing at 74.30.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday but remains above the 62% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .10101. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10418 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .9799 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10418. Second resistance is today's high crossing at .10474. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .10054. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .9799.
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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 875.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 945.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 931.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 945.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 891.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.70.
May silver closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the October- February rally crossing at 12.361 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.448 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 13.080. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.448. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 12.430. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 12.361.
May copper posted an upside reversal on Thursday while extending last week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If May extends last week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 192.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 173.70. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 192.28. First support is today's low crossing at 158.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.52.
FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
May coffee closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.043 signaling that a short- term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 11.495 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.785 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday and tested the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.05. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.05 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 21.62 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed higher on Thursday and tested the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.10. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 13.34 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If May extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 11.81 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.24 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, November's low crossing at 40.25 is the next downside target.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
May Corn closed up 20 3/4-cents at 3.85 1/4.
May corn closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the previous reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/4 confirming that a short- term low has been posted. Spillover strength from crude oil supported today's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible.
If May extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 3.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.63 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.86 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.63 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.55 1/2.
May wheat closed up 16 3/4-cents at 5.25.
May wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.43 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, December's low crossing at 4.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.43. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.06.
Second support is this month's low crossing at 4.99.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 15-cents at 5.76.
Kansas City Wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.65 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 5.88 are needed to renew this month's rally. If May extends Wednesday's decline, gap support crossing at 5.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.15. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.58 1/2. Second support is the gap crossing at 5.51.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up 12 1/4-cents at 6.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends Wednesday's decline, this month's low crossing at 5.87 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.57 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 6.03 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.98 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans closed up 20-cents at 8.82.
May soybeans posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 8.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December- January rally crossing at 8.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81.
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8.93. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 8.43. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 8.20.
May soybean meal closed up $7.00 at $276.50.
May soybean meal closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.10 confirming that a short- term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 287.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 267.10 would temper the near- term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 276.80. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 287.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 267.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 258.50.
May soybean oil closed up 47-cents at 30.38.
May soybean oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline.
Spillover strength from the energy complex supported today's rebound in soybean oil. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, gap support crossing at 29.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.66. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.10. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 29.70. Second support is gap support crossing at 29.43.
LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $1.90 at $62.25.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday ending a three-day correction off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 64.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 63.15. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 63.35. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 60.25.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 59.85.
May bellies closed up $1.55 at $84.05.
May bellies closed higher on Thursday extending the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 85.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.20 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 84.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.39. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.20.
April cattle closed up $1.35 at 83.90.
April cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.37 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
Closes above the reaction high crossing at 86.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends Wednesday's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.10 is the next downside target.
April feeder cattle closed up $0.85 at $91.20.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Wednesday's decline, February's low crossing at 88.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.15 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 94.75 are needed to renew the rally off February's low.
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E X T R E M E F U T U R E S
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WINNERS
CL.K09 CRUDE OIL May 2009 47.97 3.98 +9.08
HO.J09 HEATING OIL Apr 2009 1.2264 0.0933 +8.19
RB.K09 RBOB GASOLINE May 2009 1.3588 0.0930 +7.35
GI.H09 S&P GSCI COMMODITY INDEX Mar 2009 340.3 21.3 +6.68
SMP.H09 S&P SMALLCAP 600 Mar 2009 205.3 11.6 +5.99
C.H09 CORN Mar 2009 376.75 20.75 +5.82
YC.K09 CORN (MINI) May 2009 385.25 20.75 +5.71
NG.J09 NATURAL GAS Apr 2009 3.995 0.197 +5.18
MD.M09 S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX Jun 2009 454.2 22.0 +5.10
SP.H10 S&P 500 INDEX Mar 2010 743.6 31.4 +4.41
LOSERS
BCX.H10 CBOT SOYBEAN CRUSH INDEX Mar 2010 58.25 -2.75 -4.78
NIX.H09 10 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Mar 2009 3.07031 -0.14951 -4.64
NGX.H09 5 YEAR INT RATE SWAP (IMPLIED YLD) Mar 2009 2.58184 -0.08619 -3.23
RR.K09 ROUGH RICE May 2009 12.07 -0.37 -2.97
SF.Y$$ SWISS FRANC Cash 0.8420 -0.0257 -2.96
LB.H09 LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Mar 2009 144.0 -2.6 -1.77
JY.Y$$ JAPANESE YEN Cash 0.010202 -0.000090 -0.87
RU.Y$$ RUSSIAN RUBLE Cash 0.02851 -0.00009 -0.31
HG.K09 COPPER May 2009 1.6245 -0.0010 -0.06
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WINNERS
PLL PALL CORP 45.14 22.46 +99.03
YAVY YADKIN VALLEY FINANCIAL 6.79 3.32 +95.68
ACBA AMERICAN COMMUNITY BACSHARE 5.2501 2.1501 +69.36
GRNB GREEN BANKSHARES INC 7.12 2.19 +44.42
STBC STATE BANCORP INC 5.96 1.67 +38.93
BPOPO POPULAR INC 6.375 PR A 8.925 2.505 +38.19
DORM DORMAN PRODUCTS INC 9.28 2.53 +37.48
IBA INDUSTRIAS BACHOCO SAB 12.700 3.325 +35.47
LMIA LMI AEROSPACE INC 5.765 1.465 +34.07
SFD SMITHFIELD FOODS INC 7.95 2.00 +33.61
LOSERS
HOD HORIZONS BETAPRO NYMEX CL BEAR 25.50 -5.30 -17.21
FSY FORSYS METALS CORP 5.25 -1.00 -16.00
STLD STEEL DYNAMICS INC 7.25 -1.30 -15.20
BZLFF BUNZL PLC NEW 7.3500 -1.2443 -14.48
NAUN NATIONAL UNDERWRITER 8.96 -1.44 -13.85
SURW SUREWEST COMMUNICATIONS 8.860 -1.340 -13.14
HFD HORIZONS S&P TSX CPPD BEAR PLUS 34.54 -4.90 -12.42
NAFC NASH-FINCH CO 28.28 -3.99 -12.36
HED HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P TSX 16.19 -2.09 -11.43
HND HORIZONS BETAPRO NYMEX NG BEAR 56.20 -6.67 -10.61
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About the Author: Ron Barrow
Member Since: 12/22/2008
Company: 1740 Investments, LLC
Industry: Business Opportunities
Primary Web Site: http://www.real-estate-investing.com